As the DOJ moves to dismantle Google’s ad tech empire, one publisher unpacks what the fall of this digital Rome could mean for the small and midsize players who built their businesses along its roads.
Earlier this morning, I got a ping on Slack—a link to a New York Times article titled “Google Is a Monopolist in Online Advertising Tech, Judge Says.”
Shortly after reading it, I got an email from AdMonsters News Editor Andrew Byrd, asking for my opinion on what this ruling means for small and midsize publishers. Was I surprised by the ruling? How will it affect companies like the one I work for?
To be honest, I’ve been expecting this outcome. I’ve even been vocal about how a breakup of Google’s ad tech stack could hurt the company I work for and others. But I hadn’t actually stepped back to think about the ruling in a more holistic way—about Google not just as an ad server and exchange, but as an ecosystem.
What does this mean for the whole system? How hard could Google fall? And, more importantly, how hard will we fall?
Everyone talks about the fall of Rome. But what about the people who depended on Rome? The merchants, the artists, the towns built along the empire’s roads. The ones who weren’t in charge, but who thrived because of what Rome made possible.
I needed to explore that—and write it down. So I did what I do: I opened ChatGPT and started pouring my thoughts into the prompt. I vented. I questioned. I unpacked my concerns and, slowly, I started to see a pattern.
This wasn’t just about Google. This was about the fall of our digital Rome.
Rome Was the Infrastructure
In this analogy, Google is Rome. Not just one part of it but the whole empire: GAM, AdX, DV360, Open Bidding, Search, AdSense, Analytics, you name it. These tools weren’t just useful; they were the roads, the aqueducts, the trade routes. They allowed publishers of all sizes to build, monetize and scale.
Google didn’t invent the internet, just like Rome didn’t invent roads. But they built a system that connected everything. They made it easier for creators, storytellers, entertainers, journalists and niche publishers to enter the space and survive—sometimes even thrive—on their own terms.
There was comfort in that infrastructure. A certain stability. Even if you disagreed with some of the rules or felt the tolls were a little steep, the roads still worked. Standards existed. You could connect systems, pass data, run campaigns and make money with relatively little friction.
The Fall Begins
The DOJ ruling, particularly the recommended—but not yet confirmed—ad server divestiture and the potential separation of the buy and sell sides, could bring a lot of that stability crashing down.
Think of it this way: Rome didn’t fall overnight. But when the aqueducts stopped running and the roads became dangerous, commerce stalled. Cultural exchange dwindled. And small cities that depended on Roman protection suddenly had to fend for themselves.
That’s what this feels like for small and midsize publishers.
Ad serving costs will spike. Free GAM accounts will likely vanish, and there aren’t a lot of extremely affordable options waiting in the wings. Segmentation will become trickier if GA4 and GAM are no longer under one roof. The roads we all depended on will now have toll booths, each one with its own rules, macros and fees.
Meanwhile, a thousand little “empires” will start spinning up. New ad tech vendors promising to bridge the gap. To act as go-betweens. Some will help. Others will increase the ad tax and siphon off even more revenue from already thin margins.
And then there’s the audience data problem. Today, I can use GA4 to create segments and push them into GAM for easy targeting. Break that connection, and suddenly something that was simple can become a tech headache—and likely an expensive one.
After the Ashes
What happens next? We rebuild. But the rebuild is going to be messy.
The biggest risk isn’t just lost revenue; it’s increased costs, increased complexity and lost efficiency. Higher barriers for new publishers. That’s the part that will hit the hardest.
Will a new Rome rise? Probably not. And Google will still be a big piece of the pie. But alternative companies that can offer a cohesive, stable infrastructure with integrated ad serving, segmentation, analytics and easy exchange access will have an edge. Especially if they serve all and not just the biggest publishers.
Personal Perspective: The View From the Sidelines
Emotionally, I’m frustrated. I’m frustrated because, while monopolies aren’t ideal, this one created a low barrier of entry. Rome wasn’t a democracy, but you could sell your fish at the forum without getting mugged by 40 middlemen taking a cut.
Big publishers will be fine. They have the scale. They have the leverage. They already work directly with DSPs and have tech stacks with built-in flexibility.
But small pubs? The ones serving real communities, telling niche stories, entertaining passionate audiences? They’re the ones who might get left behind.
If I have a role in all this, I hope it’s as a voice for those too afraid to admit how this decision will hurt their business. I want to help find ways that we can successfully navigate what is coming. And I want to speak directly to the ad tech world:
Please don’t see this as a gold rush. This isn’t your opportunity to squeeze more out of already stretched publishers. If we fall, you lose customers.
Final Thought: A Message to the Empire Builders
To the publishers and agencies out there:
A solution that works for one doesn’t mean it works for all. The disruption ahead is bigger than we think, so buckle in. And check on your smaller publisher friends.
To the platforms and tech companies out there:
If you are building something to fix what is lost or to prepare for the storm, build for sustainability. Build for clarity. Build something that lets the next wave of creators flourish. Because if Rome falls and nothing takes its place, we’re all just wandering the wilderness.
Or worse: We’re stuck in a world with 37 new logins, 14 competing standards and no clean way to run a campaign.
And no one wants that.